An updated (but still hopless) attempt at a 53 man roster projection

Back in  mid-July, before training camp even opened, I put up my best effort at an admittedly hopeless projection of how the 53 man roster would end up come September.  Of course that was before weeks of reports from training camp (and tweets... so many tweets...) as well as three full preseason games.  Obviously a lot has happened, including a number of personell moves, so it seems like as good a time as any to take a second look and see what changes need to be made now that, you know, we actually have information to base this on.

First I'll go over each position group from the original projection, with a brief note on what changes seem necessary due to the events of the past month.  After that, we'll look at how the projected roster looks after implementing those changes.

[Note: based on early emails and comments I want to reiterate that in this section I am showing my old projections from July 13th, long before training camp started, then discussing how they need to be changed based on what has happened in the long seven weeks since it was written.  I am aware that they are out of date - that is in fact the whole point of this post.   After going through the old projections and noting the needed changes, there is a revised roster projection at the end of the post.]

Defensive Line (8)

Tackles: Albert Haynesworth, Maake Kemoeatu, Kedric Golston, Howard Green
Ends: Philip Daniels, Adam Carricker, Vonnie Holliday, Darrion Scott

First, let’s go ahead and move Golston to end because that is clearly now his full time job. Jeremy Jarmon, once converted to linebacker, was re-converted to defensive end to start training camp. I was strongly impressed with Jarmon last year, so I was hoping that would save his job.  But he has not distinguised himself in the new scheme, so I can't give him the benefit of the doubt.  Keeping five full time ends (in addition to Haynesworth much of the time) seems like way too much, so I think both Jarmon and Scott have to get cut.

Linebackers (8)
Outside: Brian Orakpo, Andre Carter, Lorenzo Alexander, Chris Wilson
Inside: London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh, H.B. Blades, Perry Riley

No changes needed here. I would like to add Robert Henson as a special teamer, but it’s hard to do since this is the one position group on the team that seems to lack any health/depth issues.

Defensive Backs (9)
Corners: DeAngelo Hall, Carlos Rogers, Philip Buchanon, Justin Tryon, Kevin Barnes
Safeties: Reed Doughty, LaRon Landry, Kareem Moore, Chris Horton

Tryon appears to be hanging onto the roster by his fingernails, which is surprising due to his pretty solid performance after he took the nickel job from Fred Smoot last year. But I have a hard time seeing Westbrook or Ramzee Robinson surpassing him, so for now I have to keep him in the projection.

I assume a fifth safety would only be added if Moore ends up being out well after the opening week, especially since Doughty can fill in just fine if needed.

Offensive Linemen (9)
Tackles: Trent Williams, Jammal Brown, Stephon Heyer, Selvish Capers
Interior Linemen: Derrick Dockery, Casey Rabach, Artis Hicks, Chad Rinehart, Kory Lichtensteiger

Capers has to stay, partly because William Robinson has clearly shown he cannot be effective, and partly because Capers is talented enough that he might not make it through waivers thus ruling out the practice squad.

Rinehart has not played well in preseason, and according to most reports struggled in practice as well, so he may have played himself right out of a job. Eric Cook is probably practice squad material at best, so that means either Edwin Williams or Will Montgomery can take a backup job on the interior line. For now I will say Montgomery because he was given a good long look at center in the Jets game.

Running Backs (5)
Tailbacks: Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Ryan Torain, Keiland Williams
Fullbacks: Mike Sellers

It’s tempting to say Keiland Williams should be on the practice squad. However, the odds are so high that Portis, Johnson, or both could get hurt that it seems utterly reasonable to keep four running backs. I like his comfort level as a receiver out of the backfield, and he is clearly in the mix for the primary kickoff return job, so I think he has a good chance to make it.

At fullback, we have to remove Dennis Morris because he got switched to tight end. I think Darrell Young has looked pretty good for a guy who has been a linebacker until recently, but keeping a second fullback on the active roster on a team with numerous depth issues would seem like quite a luxury. But given the obvious need to find a successor to the 36 year old Sellers, I imagine he would at least be offered a practice squad spot.


Tight Ends (2)
Keepers: Chris Cooley, Fred Davis

The original logic in keeping only two tight ends was that Morris (originally on the roster as a fullback) had been a tight end in college, and Sellers spent much of his time under Zorn lining up at tight end as well. So it seemed a reasonable way to save a roster spot would be to use the fullback (or fullbacks) in a blocking tight end role. But throughout preseason I have yet to see a FB line up at or motion to TE, so that apparently is not part of the Shanahans’ plans. Given that neither Cooley nor Davis excels as a blocker, it seems a third option is needed. Giving the nod to Vickers here, but it appears to be a pretty close race between him and Paulsen. Morris has utterly failed to gain notice in any way, so he could be gone as soon as Tuesday. He had a great YouTube video though! [Update: and the very morning after I posted this, Morris got traded away]


Wide Receivers (6)
Keepers: Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Bobby Wade, Mike Furrey, Terrence Austin

I still think it’s necessary to keep six receivers because just about everyone on this list has issues with health, consistency, or both.

Mike Furrey is already on the DL from his concussion, and Galloway took over the split end starting job at the start of camp and has retained it into the preseason, so he is clearly on the roster. So that’s an easy switch.

Armstrong is clearly on the roster, and in fact appears to be the #3 receiver. I sort of liked Wade as a boring, reliable, pure depth receiver, but I think I have to knock him off now because I want to keep either Austin or Banks on the team.

Speaking of which… I enjoyed Banks’ touchdown against Buffalo as much as the next guy. But the fumble was a killer. And I am the type who prefers a punt returner who will be sure to get the 8, 10, or 12 yards available and thus cut a first down of the offense’s ensuing drive. Austin has shown very good return abilities, even if he doesn’t bring Banks’ excitement. And Austin also has demonstrated he can contribute on offense of needed. For me it’s an easy choice between the two.

Quarterbacks (3)
Keepers: Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Colt Brennan

Obviously Brennan is long gone, and Beck was brought in. But they gave up very little in the trade (Doug Dutch, a corner who was destined to be cut anyway), so I don’t think Beck is guaranteed anything. And Grossman has shown himself to be capable as a backup – scary at times but capable of executing the playbook. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Redskins run with two quarterbacks, however I can't find another position where I am desperate enough to add a player in order to cut Beck.  So for now all we have to do is swap him out for Brennan.

Specialists (3)
Long Snapper: Nick Sundberg
Kicker: Graham Gano
Punter: Josh Bidwell

Sundberg got a lot of bad publicity for struggling in training camp, but the veteran Dearth who was brought in to compete for the job has been less than perfect as well. This could go either way, but Sundberg was the guy they liked first so I imagine he gets the benefit of the doubt if it appears his struggles are behind him.

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So implementing those changes, here is your new revised 53 man roster projection (still guaranteed to be totally wrong, perhaps as soon as Tuesday):

Defensive Line (7)
Tackles: Albert Haynesworth, Maake Kemoeatu, Howard Green
Ends: Philip Daniels, Adam Carricker, Vonnie Holliday, Kedric Golston
Cuts: Anthony Bryant, Darrion Scott, Jeremy Jarmon

Linebackers (8)
Outside: Brian Orakpo, Andre Carter, Lorenzo Alexander, Chris Wilson
Inside: London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh, H.B. Blades, Perry Riley
Cuts: Rob Jackson, Robert Henson, Curtis Gatewood

Defensive Backs (9)
Corners: DeAngelo Hall, Carlos Rogers, Philip Buchanon, Justin Tryon, Kevin Barnes
Safeties: Reed Doughty, LaRon Landry, Kareem Moore, Chris Horton
Cuts: Byron Westbrook, Lendy Holmes, Doug Dutch, Ramzee Robinson, Anderson Russell, Tyrone Carter

Offensive Linemen (9)
Tackles: Trent Williams, Jammal Brown, Stephon Heyer, Selvish Capers
Interior Linemen: Derrick Dockery, Casey Rabach, Artis Hicks, Kory Lichtensteiger, Will Montgomery
Cuts: Edwin Williams, Chad Rinehart, William Robinson, Clint Oldenburg, Eric Cook

Running Backs (5)
Tailbacks: Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Ryan Torain, Keiland Williams
Fullbacks: Mike Sellers
Cuts: Willie Parker, Darrell Young

Tight Ends (3)
Keepers: Chris Cooley, Fred Davis, Lee Vickers
Cuts: Logan Paulsen, Dennis Morris [Update:  or, he could be traded 8 hours after I post this]

Wide Receivers (6)
Keepers: Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, Anthony Armstrong, Joey Galloway, Terrence Austin
Cuts: Brandon Banks, Roydell Williams, Shay Hodge, Bobby Wade

Quarterbacks (3)
Keepers: Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, John Beck
Cut: Richard Bartel

Specialists (3)
Long Snapper: Nick Sundberg
Kicker: Graham Gano
Punter: Josh Bidwell
Cut: James Dearth